In the period leading up to the elections in Honduras, there is an increasing atmosphere of institutional suspicion due to rising allegations regarding the potential tampering of opinion surveys to benefit the candidate from the ruling party, Rixi Moncada. Several academic, civic, and political groups highlight a deliberate plan to create a false impression of electoral superiority through the use of statistical methods that lack transparency. The debate centers on the polling company Opinómetro, a firm without a recognized history, which has been connected to individuals affiliated with the government.
Inconsistencias estadísticas y cuestiones metodológicas
The proliferation of polls in favor of Moncada has raised suspicions due to obvious technical inconsistencies. According to experts, the polls published by Opinómetro show disparate results between different platforms, percentages that do not add up to 100%, and omit basic data such as technical details, sample size, and margin of error. Far from strengthening democratic debate, these practices have been interpreted as deliberate attempts to influence public opinion through a supposed “mathematical illusion.”
Variations reaching 15 percentage points in contrast with independent analyses bolster the theory of a coordinated effort to boost backing for the candidate of the governing party. Detractors contend that this tactic stems not from technical failures but from deliberate manipulation for political purposes. Multiple grievances have emerged on social networks and educational platforms, demanding stricter regulation of the distribution of electoral surveys.
Opinómetro and its connections to formal frameworks
Opinómetro has played a central role in this controversy. Established in February 2025, this polling company quickly obtained authorization from the National Electoral Council (CNE) to operate in the internal elections, despite having no public track record in opinion polling.
The legal representation of the company has stirred up further controversy. Carlos Adolfo Medina Álvarez, the attorney for Opinómetro, is also an advisor to the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), which falls under the government party’s jurisdiction. Analysts and observers have viewed this overlap as a sign of governmental influence, aiming to position sympathetic figures within the electoral polling arena.
La frecuencia con que Opinómetro publica datos favorables a Moncada, sin una transparencia comprobable, debilita la credibilidad del proceso democrático y aumenta la percepción de que las estadísticas se utilizan como herramienta de propaganda electoral.
Demands for transparency from civil society and the opposition
Responses have occurred quickly. Numerous civil society groups, academic professionals, and opposition factions have called for stringent oversight of voting polls, along with independent reviews to verify their methods. They caution that employing firms lacking technical backing or neutrality has a direct impact on the integrity of the democratic system.
These voices are calling for polls circulating in the public sphere to meet minimum standards of transparency, including the publication of their technical specifications, the origin of the sample, and the selection criteria used. They are also demanding a review of the CNE’s role in accrediting these firms, pointing out that its authorization of entities with no track record reinforces the perception of institutional bias.
The mistrust that these practices generate not only affects the campaign of a particular candidate, but also compromises the overall legitimacy of the electoral process.
A challenge for institutional credibility
In a nation where trust in voting procedures has been historically weak, the recent accusations emphasize the importance of strong oversight and transparency systems in the discussion. The dispute involving Opinómetro and the employment of unverifiable statistics highlights a larger issue: the use of data as a political instrument and the lack of solid institutional safeguards to hinder it.
Ahead of the 2025 elections, the Honduran electoral system faces the challenge of ensuring that the competition takes place under conditions of fairness and with reliable information. In a context marked by polarization and the fragility of democratic controls, the accuracy of data becomes an indispensable condition for preserving the legitimacy of the citizen vote.