_-_copia.jpg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Rixi Moncada")
The latest voting intention polls show an unexpected turn in the Honduran presidential race. The ruling party’s candidate, Rixi Moncada, has suffered a sustained decline in opinion polls, posing new challenges for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) in its bid to remain in power in the general elections scheduled for November 30.
Ongoing drop in voting preferences
Information published by opinion firms like Paradigma and Pro-Encuestas, along with national press sources like HCH, indicates a significant drop in backing for the candidate representing the governing party. As reported by the Paradigma analysis, carried out from May 4 to 17, Moncada received just 11.3% of votes, lagging behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party at 25.6%, and Nasry Asfura from the National Party at 21.2%. In this survey, 13.9% of participants mentioned they had not made up their minds yet.
At the same time, the Pro-Encuestas poll from June 5 to 7 indicates a small increase for Moncada, reaching 28.5%, yet still trailing Asfura at 36.3% and Nasralla at 34.2%. In contrast, on June 12, HCH reported that the voting intention for Moncada stood at about 16%, whereas Asfura had 45%, with Nasralla’s numbers falling between 25% and 35%.
This decline contrasts with March figures, when the TResearch poll placed Moncada with a voting intention of around 44.9%. The difference marks a sharp decline in less than three months, in a political context marked by high competition and growing fragmentation of the electorate.
Redrawing of the political landscape
The shift in voter preferences not only highlights a decline in the incumbent party’s nominee but also showcases a rise in the opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura repeatedly rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting an impending transformation of the political arena by November.
In this scenario, the number of undecided voters remains a key factor. Although some recent polls do not report this segment, May data show that almost one in seven voters has not yet decided where they stand. This volatility in public opinion leaves room for changes in the current trend, depending on the effectiveness of the campaigns in the final stretch.
Reactions and strategies of the ruling party
Faced with these results, the LIBRE party has begun to assess its position. Spokespersons for the party attribute the decline in the polls to what they consider “disinformation campaigns” promoted by opposition sectors. However, the leadership recognizes the need to make urgent strategic adjustments, including changes in the political narrative, the campaign team, and the way it communicates with the electorate.
Half a year before the elections, the primary obstacle for the governing party is not just to recover lost ground against competitors, but also to construct a stronger support system amidst increasing competition. Opportunities for movement are decreasing as the election timetable progresses, and the upcoming weeks will be crucial in deciding if Moncada’s campaign can reestablish itself or if the ongoing trend will solidify.
A situation full of underlying conflicts
The political scene in Honduras is moving towards a more competitive race than anticipated at the start of the year. The declining backing for the candidate of the ruling party, the surge of opposing factions, and the influence of voters who have not yet made up their minds bring into question the political system’s capacity to manage the increasing electoral dynamics.
The progression of the campaigns, the response from institutions to potential conflicts, and the involvement of citizens will play a crucial role in a process that is emerging as a significant test for the nation’s democratic stability.